Welcome to my new website dedicated to the AREA Method. Each month in this space I will write about my work as a consultant, journalist and teacher, how the AREA Method has played out for others and about research articles that discuss aspects of decision making, process, cognitive biases, learning, perspective-taking and more. Why spend time on decision-making? Because even…
The NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks aren’t a very good basketball team – yet. The team is in the rebuilding phase and in the 2015-16 season yielded only 33 wins and 49 losses, not good enough for the playoffs. In the spring draft a few weeks ago, the team drafted Thon Maker, a player born in the Sudan. While Maker has a…
Recently I read an article on the Farnam Street blog called Incentives Gone Wrong: Cobras, Severed Hands and Shea Butter that recounts two historical events that nicely demonstrate the importance of perspective-taking. The author writes: “During British colonial rule of India, the government began to worry about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi, and so instituted a reward for…
Donald Trump’s victory was a surprise. How come? With all of the legions of pundits, commentators and pollsters, how did so many experts make the same mistake, and how can we as decision makers do a better job of understanding the data before us? The AREA Method teaches that in research and decision making we need to carefully distinguish between…
I read in a newspaper article this week that this year is the 150th anniversary of Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s masterpiece Crime and Punishment. I first read this gripping novel in high school, but now, decades later, I still recall it vividly. And I’m obviously not alone. This classic was so popular when it first came out after the destitute Dostoyevsky feverishly…
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